Has Trump’s tariff policy backfired, leading to a contraction in U.S. manufacturing?
The manufacturing boom promised by Trump has failed to materialize. Months after the implementation of his hallmark tariff policies, manufacturing jobs continue to decline, and industry activity has remained in prolonged contraction.
Trump once promised a ‘golden age’ for American manufacturing, but this prosperity is now receding. After years of economic intervention under both the Trump and Biden administrations, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States has dropped to its lowest point since the end of the pandemic.
Federal data shows that in the eight months following Trump’s announcement of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff, manufacturing jobs declined month by month, continuing a contraction trend that has seen over 200,000 jobs disappear since 2023. The index of factory activity tracked by the Institute for Supply Management remained in contraction territory for 26 consecutive months through December of last year, although a surprise rebound in new orders and production indexes in January caught analysts off guard. Manufacturing construction spending, which had surged under Biden-era funding for chips and renewable energy, fell month by month during Trump’s first nine months in office, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This gradual slowdown is, to some extent, a continuation of decades-long trends that shifted factory jobs overseas and accelerated the decline of Midwestern cities. In an industry where capital planning and construction cycles often span several years, reversing these trends will not happen overnight.
In November last year, the Federal Reserve significantly revised downward its estimates of total U.S. output since the pandemic when it conducted its annual revision of industrial production indicators.
“We never fully recovered from the pandemic,” said Josh Lehner, a U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. Although automakers and chip manufacturers cut tens of thousands of jobs over the past year, the steady pace of layoffs across the industry suggests that job losses have been gradual.
Lehner and other economists also pointed out signs that output has stabilized and even grown slightly, though increased efficiency may limit the number of new jobs created. A White House spokesperson highlighted a modest rise in manufacturing productivity in recent quarters and noted that wage growth for workers exceeded inflation over the past year.
U.S. manufacturing jobs
U.S. manufacturing job additions
In the long run, tariffs may achieve their intended effect of enhancing the competitiveness of some manufacturers relative to overseas producers. Economists believe that lowering interest rates and deregulation could also provide support. However, in the short term, tariffs have raised costs for many companies importing raw materials and components, forcing businesses reliant on foreign parts to raise product prices or hurriedly seek alternative supplies.
The intermittent policymaking from the White House—Trump threatened new tariffs on Europe, Canada, and South Korea in recent weeks—has also led many business executives to view the past year as a ‘lost year for investment.’ The possibility that the Supreme Court might overturn some import taxes has added further uncertainty.
Meanwhile, despite the tariffs, some countries continue to expand their exports, driving down prices in the global market and making it difficult for U.S. manufacturers to compete.
“In our product portfolio, there are hardly any products that have benefited from tariffs,” said the CEO of Insteel Industries, headquartered in North Carolina.$Insteel Industries (IIIN.US)$H.O. Woltz III. With foreign steel tariffs doubling to 50% this year, Insteel has found it increasingly difficult to obtain steel from its U.S. suppliers for producing concrete infrastructure reinforcements, such as those required for the upcoming Gordie Howe Bridge connecting Detroit and Canada.$TRADELINK (00536.HK)$On the contrary, when domestic supply in the U.S. is insufficient, Insteel sometimes has no choice but to turn to importing tariffed steel from places like Algeria and India.
“Our growth today could be undermined by a lack of available (domestic) raw materials,” Woltz said.
In the trucking industry, a multi-year slump following the pandemic hit metal component manufacturers such as NN. The company, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, and operating 23 plants across six countries, has cut its U.S. workforce in recent years to compete with low-cost factories overseas while addressing slowing demand for electric vehicles. CEO Harold Bevis believes tariffs will ultimately benefit NN by curbing competition from rivals in precision components like steering systems and audiovisual controls. However, import duties have driven up costs for steel and aluminum, while surging market prices for gold and silver—used in some of NN’s products—have added further pressure.
This squeezes the company’s ability to invest in new potentially profitable areas such as data centers and electrical equipment. “So you get hit,” Bevis said. NN is attempting to offset the costs by raising prices in subsequent orders. Bevis noted that NN’s business has accelerated amid Ford and General Motors’ push for localized sourcing, following multibillion-dollar asset write-downs on their EV businesses. However, when evaluating locations for expanding production for the auto sector, Bevis cautioned that places like Michigan and Massachusetts remain less attractive compared to Mexico, where many products can still enter the U.S. duty-free under trade agreements.
Trump has also taken other measures to try to revitalize manufacturing. He pressured trading partners like Japan and South Korea into agreements promising to invest tens of billions of dollars in the U.S.$Apple (AAPL.US)$ 、$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$and$AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$Companies have announced large-scale projects that could create thousands of manufacturing jobs. Government officials stated that the long-term vision is achieving industrial self-sufficiency. However, these investments often span several years, leaving the short-term outlook for manufacturing uncertain. “I don’t know when all this money will start to pay off,” Trump told The Wall Street Journal in December last year.
Analysts pointed out that new investments might focus on areas that fascinate Wall Street, such as robotic tools and artificial intelligence components, meaning the likelihood of a surge in permanent factory jobs is low. After years of inflation and high borrowing costs, some sectors of the economy remain lagging, impacting certain types of manufacturing.$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$After experiencing years of inflation and high borrowing costs, certain segments of the economy continue to lag behind, affecting specific types of manufacturing.
“If people aren’t buying homes, they won’t buy furniture,” said Meganne Wecker, CEO of Skyline Furniture Manufacturing, a family-owned business founded in 1946 located outside Chicago. Skyline ventured early into e-commerce and began sourcing metal materials domestically in 2018. However, tariffs have impacted hardwood imports from Vietnam and textiles from India and China, leading to price increases.
Wecker is more concerned about the impact of tariffs not directly on Skyline but on suppliers and retailers. “The entire industry feels somewhat fragile,” she said of the furniture sector, adding that tariff uncertainties have dampened prospects for new domestic capacity investment. “I don’t know anyone who feels confident enough to make an investment that might only last a few years.”
Some investors believe that interest rate cuts and stimulative fiscal policies should help accelerate economic growth this year. “The biggest overall factor determining how well manufacturing performs is how well our economy performs. There’s no escaping that,” said Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, which supports tariffs on steel and many products. “It’s too early to tell what the new normal will be because we’ve just come out of that roller-coaster period.”
Editor/Doris
