India Services Hits 55.8, US Manufacturing Hits 57

Market snapshot: Global economic momentum accelerated sharply in September 2026, driven by a strong rebound in India’s services activity and an impressive dual expansion in both manufacturing and services in the United States. India’s preliminary services PMI climbed to 55.8, while US S&P Global manufacturing activity recorded its fastest rate of expansion since May 2022 at 57.0.

Data Snapshot

• The preliminary HSBC India Services PMI rebounded to 55.8 in September 2026, up from 54.1 in August 2026.
• The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI surged to 57.0 in September 2026, exceeding market estimates.
• The US S&P Global Services PMI climbed to 58.7 in September 2026, compared to 56.5 in the previous month.
• The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 56.5 in September 2026, up from 54.3 in August, signaling a broad-based recovery.

What’s Changed

• The Indian services activity expansion rate accelerated by 1.7 points month-on-month (derived: September flash of 55.8 vs August final of 54.1).
• The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered a sharp 3.1-point monthly increase, rising from 53.9 in August to 57.0 in September.
• The US S&P Global Services PMI expanded by an additional 2.2 points to hit 58.7 in September compared to 56.5 in August.

Key Takeaways

• Stronger output growth and resilient new business inflows drove the sharp recovery in India’s services sector.
• The US economy is showing intense momentum, with manufacturing output expanding at its fastest rate since mid-2022 and jobs growth hitting multi-year highs.
• Underlying price pressures have picked up in both the US and Indian economies, primarily fueled by rising fuel, transportation, and material costs.
• The stronger-than-expected US data has significantly increased investor expectations of a hawkish stance or potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings.

SAHI Perspective

The synchronized surge in economic activity across India and the US highlights strong global demand but brings inflation back into sharp focus. For India, the recovery in services is a relief after August’s multi-year low. However, in the US, the dramatic expansion in both manufacturing and services to multi-year highs suggests that the economy remains highly resilient despite previous rate hikes. This resilience is likely to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, potentially putting upward pressure on yields and creating a challenging environment for emerging market capital flows, even as domestic corporate earnings are supported by robust demand.

Market Implications

A stronger US economic footprint reinforces US Dollar strength and pushes Treasury yields higher, which historically weighs on emerging market equity and debt flows. In India, while strong domestic growth metrics are positive for corporate earnings and local equities, macro headwinds from a strengthening dollar and rising US yields could cap immediate upside. Furthermore, the pick-up in input prices across both geographies signals that inflation is not yet fully tamed, complicating the policy paths for both the Reserve Bank of India and the Federal Reserve.

Trading Signals

Market Bias: Neutral

Strong economic growth is positive for corporate earnings, but the massive beats in US PMI data (manufacturing at 57.0 and services at 58.7) lift the threat of a hawkish Fed. Yields are rising, which neutralizes the positive impact of India’s services rebound to 55.8.

Overweight: Information Technology, Capital Goods, Industrial Manufacturing

Underweight: Real Estate, Financials, Utilities

Trigger Factors:

• US Federal Reserve monetary policy commentary and interest rate decisions.
• Movement of the US 10-year Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
• Final release of the September PMI data to confirm preliminary flash trends.
• Crude oil price trends and their impact on imported inflation in India.

Time Horizon: Near-term (0-3 months)

Industry Context

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is a key leading indicator of macroeconomic health. In August, India’s services activity had slowed to a 54.1 reading—one of its lowest points in four years—as service providers faced intense competition and softer client interest. However, the September flash recovery to 55.8 points to a solid rebound in new orders and business activity. In the US, the manufacturing sector has been pulling out of a prolonged period of contraction, and the jump to 57.0 in September indicates robust inventory re-stocking and an acceleration in job creation.

Key Risks to Watch

• Resurgent inflationary pressures driven by rising fuel, transport, and operating costs in both India and the US.
• Hawkish Federal Reserve policy shifts, which could lead to further capital outflows from emerging markets like India.
• Friction in global supply chains, with suppliers’ delivery times lengthening due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East.

Recent Developments

In August 2026, India’s services PMI stood at a downwardly revised 54.1, while the manufacturing PMI fell to a near five-year low of 52.8. At the same time, the US manufacturing PMI had settled at 53.9 in August, reflecting moderate expansion before the sharp rebound observed in the September flash estimates.

Closing Insight

The September flash PMI numbers present a classic double-edged sword: exceptional economic expansion that confirms corporate resilience, but with the immediate drawback of sticky cost inflation and higher interest rate risks. Investors should focus on high-quality, margin-resilient sectors that can withstand higher borrowing costs while capitalizing on strong underlying demand.

High Performance Trading with SAHI.

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US Solar PV Manufacturing Capex Forecast to Hit $12.2 Billion by 2026 – News and Statistics

Sep 22, 2026

Cumulative solar photovoltaic manufacturing capital expenditure in the United States is forecast to reach $12.2 billion by the end of 2026, according to Terawatt PV Research, a figure that would represent more than half of all solar PV manufacturing spending recorded in the country since 2001. The projection appears in the firm’s new Solar Manufacturing USA Quarterly report, released on the same day as the analysis, which was carried out by the company’s founder.

The research draws on the author’s experience examining the operations of more than 500 solar PV manufacturers worldwide across a period of more than two decades, spanning the industry’s shift from research and development to commercial activity.

Report scope and methodology

The U.S.-focused report is built around the core building blocks needed to interpret quarterly metrics at individual PV manufacturing sites: effective ramped capacity, production output, technology segmentation and manufacturing capex. For the first time, coverage of PV manufacturing capex extends beyond equipment spending at the company level.

The analysis now breaks capex down quarterly for individual U.S. manufacturing sites and further divides company, site, value-chain and technology-specific spending across buildings and infrastructure, new production equipment, and maintenance and upgrades. The consolidated totals are intended to provide an accurate picture of the domestic solar PV manufacturing landscape, supporting forecasting out to 2030.

The report covers company-specific manufacturing sites in production since 2020, the period leading into the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the subsequent rise in manufacturing capex from 2023 onward, and bottom-up forecasting to the end of 2030 that factors in new investments arising from Section 232.

Capex trends and company concentration

U.S. solar PV manufacturing capex has exceeded $2.5 billion in each year since 2023. A record $4.14 billion was spent during 2024, with more than 60% of that total coming from just two companies: First Solar, mainly through spending on new factories in Alabama and Louisiana, and Qcells, part of Hanwha Solutions, through vertically integrated investments in Georgia.

Segmenting capex across buildings and infrastructure, new production equipment, and maintenance and upgrades highlights differing dynamics at domestic production sites. Allocations to buildings and infrastructure vary widely, from refitting an existing warehouse for module assembly to building a dedicated greenfield site for solar cell manufacturing, a difference of more than an order of magnitude on a per-installed-watt basis. Buildings and infrastructure costs accounted for about 60% of total spending during the 2023-2026 period.

Capacity, production and regional shifts

Effective capacity levels for crystalline silicon cells and modules in the United States have grown quarter on quarter since the start of 2025, with effective-capacity-conversion rates varying considerably by site, from 15-20% during early ramp-up to 70-80% at a select group of companies. Forecasting cell and module production volumes to 2030 frames the additional upstream capex needed for a more balanced silicon-based value chain in the country.

Site-level analysis allows regional trends to be identified quickly, and production data is particularly useful in assessing where materials supplies could be strategically developed. Currently, this type of analysis can only be applied to module production in the United States; doing so for ingots, wafers and cells is considered too early.

At state level, Ohio was the dominant zone for module production volumes leading into the rollout of the Inflation Reduction Act, by virtue of First Solar’s manufacturing bases. Texas has become the leader in the post-IRA era, emerging as the top state for module production in 2026 with contributions from Canadian Solar, Sirius/Elin, Imperial Star, SEG Solar, T1 Energy, TOYO/Abalance and Waaree Energies. Much of the remaining activity is in the Southeast, with a geographic split between the gulf coast corridor of Louisiana and Florida and an advanced manufacturing region covering the Carolinas, Georgia and Alabama.

Ratings and next steps

The report’s final output is to rank and rate the companies analyzed. This step is intended to focus attention on the manufacturing decisions of the top 20 companies in the U.S. solar sector, a subset that typically accounts for more than 95% of all significant investment and production.

The report is built from a proprietary bottom-up database of U.S. solar manufacturing activity analyzed at site level by quarter. Production is tracked across the crystalline silicon value chain from polysilicon through modules, alongside segmented thin-film cell and module output equivalence. Capex is divided between buildings and infrastructure, production equipment, and maintenance and upgrades, while excluding research and development contributions. The underlying data draws on audited filings and company reporting where available, supplemented by market research based on operational and industry evidence and personal communications.

Production and capex are independently subjected to statistical transformation and normalization before being combined through a weighted methodology to generate a Manufacturing Strength score for each company. An operating-production screening process prevents companies with little or no realized output from being elevated solely by announced or early-stage capital spending. The scores determine company rankings, while a standardized Z-score analysis measures each qualifying manufacturer against the wider U.S. peer group and forms the basis of AAA-to-C Manufacturing Strength ratings presented as a truncated pyramid. Ratings are displayed annually, with each quarterly report updating production and capex assumptions and therefore the forecast full-year ranking and rating.

The first Manufacturing Strength Ratings Pyramid for U.S. solar PV manufacturers is scheduled to be revealed during an opening talk at the Solar Manufacturing USA 2026 conference in Austin, Texas, on 22-23 September 2026. The Solar Manufacturing USA Quarterly report is released today, with the first quarterly deliverable scheduled for the start of October 2026, when analysis for the third quarter of 2026 is completed. Report enquiries and subscriptions are managed exclusively by pv magazine USA, extending a working partnership that led to the launch of the Solar Manufacturing USA event in 2026.

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